zeal
I think I forgot, in all the awards-show hype this season, to share with you my impressions of this year's Academy Awards nominees — and my picks and predictions for the major awards.
I suppose I'm better late than never, as they say. My predictions are in bold.
ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, “Half Nelson"
Peter O’Toole, “Venus"
Will Smith, “The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland"
I'm going to go way out on a limb here and predict that Forest Whitaker will complete his sweep of the awards with another win for his turn as dictator Idi Amin in "The Last King of Scotland."
ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz, “Volver"
Judi Dench, “Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, “The Queen"
Meryl Streep, “The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, “Little Children"
As much as I really loved "Little Children," and as much as I wish Kate Winslet could get some recognition for a brilliant performance in that film, I don't think anyone in this category — not even the inimitable Meryl Streep — has a shot at beating out Helen Mirren for this prize.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine"
Jackie Earle Haley, “Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, “Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, “Dreamgirls"
Mark Wahlberg, “The Departed"
I'm making a prediction here that I don't believe myself. I mean, Murphy has been lauded to no end for his part in "Dreamgirls," so I'm sure he did well. But I've seen "Little Children" three times now, and Jackie Earle Healey's portrayal of a convicted sex offender is so shockingly good that it surprises me every time. He deserves the Oscar — I have no doubt about this — but I don't think he'll walk away with it.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Adriana Barraza, “Babel"
Cate Blanchett, “Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, “Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, “Babel"
Hudson has already been granted confirmation of her star stature in Golden Globe and SAG Award form, and I predict she'll take home the Oscar, too. I would love to see little Abigail Breslin's nuanced, real performance in "Little Miss Sunshine" recognized, but I suspect the nomination will have to suffice.
DIRECTING:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Babel"
Martin Scorsese, “The Departed"
Clint Eastwood, “Letters From Iwo Jima"
Stephen Frears, “The Queen"
Paul Greengrass, “United 93"
It's Scorsese. Does anyone else really have a chance?
PICTURE:
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Queen"
Okay ... so this one is a toughie. Of the five, I've only seen two: "Little Miss Sunshine" and "The Queen." I had no interest in seeing "The Departed" -- it just doesn't seem like my cup of tea, from everything I've seen and read about it, even though I'll admit it's likely very well done. Same, kind of, for "Letters from Iwo Jima," although I really think I'd enjoy that better than its counterpart, "Flags of our Fathers," and definitely better than "Departed." I didn't get to see "Babel" in the theaters, because by the time I'd convinced myself that it sounded interesting enough to counteract the presence of Brad Pitt (Multiple interconnected storylines in multiple languages? That's so me, I could have made that film!), it was gone. Luckily, it came out on video today, so I can rent it this week and watch it before Sunday's awards.
But hey, I've made most of my predictions without seeing all the films in each category. So why is it so tough to pick a "Best Picture"? Because, you see, the Academy tends to be unpredictable in this area. Remember how "Crash" robbed "Brokeback Mountain" of the prize?
My money, I think, would be on "Babel": "Little Miss Sunshine," while probably my favorite movie of the five, will probably not stand up well to the weightier subject matter in the other films; "The Queen" was great, but it was all about Helen Mirren, so once she's honored as "Best Actress," that's it; and I honestly don't know if enough people saw "Letters from Iwo Jima" to ensure its victory. "The Departed" is probably the strongest competitor "Babel" has.
But as I said to someone or other last night, while we were watching a pre-Oscars show on The Biography Channel, "Letters from Iwo Jima" will probably win. Just because I don't think it should.